Facts from the Week: Dec 31, 2021
Highlights from $RCL $CCL $BLDE $JPM $MA $NKE Supply Chain, Travel, Consumer, Market Sentiment
Consumer: Mastercard reporting holiday sales up 10.7% vs 2019 and JP Morgan Chase consumer card spending up 9.1% vs two years ago
Covid has caused near term disruption to cruise bookings though bookings for back half of 2022 look good according to Royal and Carnival
Shipping costs might be ticking down from highs but are still up substantially year-over-year while Nike expects greater supply chain costs than they did 90 days ago
Happy New Year!
Royal Caribbean - $RCL
The numbers indicate an increase in people testing positive without a corresponding increase in people becoming ill. Since cruising restarted in the U.S. in June 2021, the Royal Caribbean Group has carried 1.1 million guests with 1,745 people testing positive – a positivity rate of 0.02%. Furthermore, the vast majority of those cases had no symptoms or only mild symptoms, with only 41 people needing hospitalization. None of the Omicron cases have been severe or needed to be taken to a hospital. These figures are a result of almost everyone onboard having been vaccinated and having a negative test before boarding.
Following a very strong Cyber weekend, the company experienced a decline in bookings and increased cancellations for near-term sailings but to a lesser degree than that experienced with the Delta variant. Load factors for sailings in the first half of 2022 remain below historical levels, as expected. However, sailings for the second half of 2022 continue to be booked within historical ranges, at higher prices with and without Future Cruise Credits (FCCs), with strong demand from the critical U.S. market.
Carnival Cruise - $CCL
Cumulative advanced bookings for the second half of 2022 and first half of 2023 are at the higher end of historical ranges and at higher prices, with or without FCCs, normalized for bundled packages, as compared to 2019 sailings. Booking volumes for the same periods during fourth quarter of 2021 were higher than the third quarter of 2021. Over the last few weeks, we have experienced an initial impact on bookings related to near-term sailings as a result of the Omicron variant.
Blade - $BLDE
“In recent weeks, our Blade Airport volumes have reached pre-covid levels with overall Short Distance revenues well ahead of both 2020 and 2019 for the December quarter-to-date." -CEO
"We are closely monitoring developments related to the Omicron variant, but Blade has not seen any negative impact to our businesses to date. We remain committed to adding additional airport capacity in the coming months and launching additional routes in 2022.”
ARC Travel Agency Airline Ticket Variance vs 2019
Kayak - Flight searches vs two years ago
Chase Consumer Card Spending
Mastercard Spending Pulse - $MA
Nike - $NKE
Our fiscal '22 financial outlook reflects inventory supply significantly lagging consumer demand across NIKE's portfolio of brands.
Specifically for fiscal '22, we continue to expect revenue to grow mid-single digits versus the prior year, in line with guidance from 90 days ago. For Q3, we expect revenue to grow low single digits versus the prior year due to the ongoing impacts from lost production from COVID-related disruptions in Vietnam.
We are raising our gross margin guidance to expand 150 basis points versus the prior year. We expect to continue benefiting from exceptional demand against the backdrop of lean marketplace inventory. Full price realization will remain above our long-term target with lower channel markdowns. However, we expect product costs to rise in the second half due to higher macro input costs. We're also planning for supply chain costs for the full year to increase relative to our estimates 90 days ago, with a greater impact in the second half.
Freightos Baltic Index [Global Container Freight Index]
HARPER PETERSEN Charter Rates Index [published by HARPER PETERSEN and reflects the worldwide price development on the charter market for container ships]
Odds and Ends
CNN Fear and Greed Index
AAII Bull Bear Index
Wilshire 5000 to US GDP
Real Interest Rates (blue)
US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet