Facts from the Week: January 23, 2022

Highlights from $SPWH $CONN $SIG $RBX $IBKR $STLC Consumer Housing etc.

Consumer

Sportsman’s Warehouse - $SPWH - 8 weeks ended 12/25/21:

• Same store sales decreased 6.1% during the eight weeks of fiscal year 2021 compared to the eight weeks of fiscal year 2020. Excluding firearms and ammunition same store sales increased 2.8% compared to the same eight-week period of fiscal year 2020.  Compared to the same eight weeks of fiscal year 2019, same store sales increased 38.7%.

• Same store sales in the Footwear, Optics/Electronics/Accessories, and Clothing categories increased 15.7%, 6.7%, and 4.4%, respectively, compared to the eight weeks of fiscal year 2020.

• Ecommerce sales increased 2.5% compared to the same eight-week period of fiscal year 2020. Compared to the same eight-week period of fiscal year 2019, ecommerce sales increased approximately 200%.

• For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021, the Company expects net sales and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $405 to $410 million and $0.43 to $0.48, respectively. This guidance includes a headwind in January comparable sales as we anniversary the events of January 6, 2020 which drove significant demand in our firearms and ammunition categories.

Redbubble - $RBX

• Redbubble now expects FY22 Marketplace Revenue to be slightly below FY21 underlying Marketplace Revenue [note: previously was “Redbubble expects FY22 Marketplace Revenue to be slightly above FY21 underlying Marketplace Revenue”

Conn’s - $CONN -Three year financial and operating goals include:

• Growing total revenues to approximately $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion, representing an estimated 9% to 12% CAGR;

• Increasing eCommerce revenues from approximately 6% of total retail revenues in Q3 of fiscal year 2022 to approximately 20% of total retail revenues;

• Maintaining a stable credit business, producing at least 1,000 basis points of credit spread; and

• Producing a high single digit EBIT margin.

Signet - $SIG - Holiday Sales

North America Total revenue was $2.2 billion, up 30.2% to last year and up 33.1% to two years ago.

• ◦eCommerce sales increased 17.7% to last year and 85.4% to two years ago.

• ◦Brick and mortar sales increased 33.6% to last year and 24.7% to two years ago.

• •SSS1 increased 24.8% to last year and 37.8% to two years ago.

• •Transactions rose 8.0% to last year and average transaction value increased 16.3%.

• January sales have remained strong in the high single digits, reflecting some shifts due to earlier customer shopping in the quarter. With 10 shopping days remaining in the fourth quarter, the Company believes it will deliver a sequential same store sales acceleration from third to fourth quarter. Specifically, the Company believes it will deliver approximately

Housing

Single Family Housing Starts - US Census

Leading Indicator or Remodel Activity - Harvard

Odds and Ends

CNN Fear and Greed Index

AAII Bull Bear

Interactive Brokers - $IBKR - Thomas Petterfy:

I'm extremely worried about much higher interest rates, not because the Fed will move it there, but people will realize that they have to borrow money and leverage in order to keep up with inflation. And so I think that the Fed will lose control.

Stelco - $STLC

• Stelco Holdings Inc. CEO Warns North America Market a ‘Falling Knife’ Excess supplies, rising inventories and shrinking demand are to blame, he says. Stelco is one of the largest steelmakers in the U.S., with a market value of more than $30 billion.

• “It’s a falling knife,” Stelco Chief Executive Officer Alan Kestenbaum said Thursday in an interview. “The question is when does it go the other way and where are we in the economic cycle?” he said.

US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet