Facts from the Week: March 5, 2021
Highlights from $COST $BKE $BGFV $TGT $JWN $GO $RRGB $LYFT $BJ $BURL $LOGI $WIX $SE $IBKR $SMG $LL $EXPI $BXC $PRPL $BIG $FMCC $RDFN $FLTR $FLTR $FRGI $RUTH
Summary
Housing continues to show strength with Redfin noting February median home-sale price increased 16% year over year to $323,600, an all-time high.
ScottsMiracle-Gro noted sales of its product at retail are up 25% year to date
The consumer continues to show strength with Lyft noting that rideshare ride volume during the week ending February 28th reached a new record level for 2021 and was the Company’s best week since March 2020.
Costco reported a 10% comp in February (23% on a two-year) as they begin lapping Covid stockpiling which started the last week of February 2020
Big Five sales are up 20% year to date
Inflation expectations continue to gain attention - Costco noted 2-4% inflation and is raising wages effective March 1st.
Consumer
Costco - $COST 3/4/21 Monthly sales for February:
The Buckle - $BKE 3/4/21 Monthly sales for February:
Big Five - $BGFV 3/3/21:
Turning now to current trends. We are very pleased that the strong 2020 momentum has continued. The first quarter of 2021 is off to a very strong start with sales running up approximately 20%. Virtually all categories that drove last year's results have continued to perform at a high level. Additionally, sales of winter-related products have responded exceptionally well to favorable winter weather in our Western market. -CEO
Target - $TGT 3/4/21:
4Q Comparable sales grew 20.5 percent, reflecting comparable traffic growth of 6.5 percent and a 13.1 percent increase in average ticket.
Store comparable sales increased 6.9 percent. Digital comparable sales grew 118 percent, accounting for two-thirds of the Company's overall comp growth.
Same-day services (Order Pick Up, Drive Up and Shipt) grew 212 percent, led by more than 500 percent growth in Drive Up.
More than 95 percent of Target's fourth quarter sales were fulfilled by its stores.
Nordstrom - $JWN 3/2/21:
4Q Total Company net sales decreased 20 percent compared with the same period in fiscal 2019, slightly exceeding Company expectations for a low-twenties percentage decrease. • Digital sales increased 24 percent compared with the same period in fiscal 2019 and represented 54 percent of the business. • Top performing merchandise categories included home, active and beauty
2021 guidance: Revenue, including retail sales and credit card revenues, is expected to grow more than 25 percent, with digital representing approximately 50 percent of sales • EBIT margin is expected to be approximately 3 percent of sales • Income tax rate is expected to be approximately 27 percent • Leverage ratio is expected to be approximately 3x by year-end • For the first half, EBIT is expected to be approximately breakeven, reflecting approximately 45 percent of total year sales
Grocery Outlet - $GO 3/2/21:
Comparable store sales increased by 7.9% on a 13-week basis over a 5.1% increase in the same period last year.
The Company anticipates that comparable sales for the first quarter will decline in the negative high-single digits reflecting the impact of cycling the initial demand surge related to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
Red Robin - $RRGB 3/4/21:
Lyft - $LYFT 3/2/21:
In February, average daily rideshare rides increased 4.0% month-over-month relative to the average daily rideshare ride volume in January 2021. As described on Lyft’s fourth quarter earnings call, weather in the first quarter is highly unpredictable and severe storms can shut down cities and impact rides. In particular, the week ending February 21, 2021 was impacted by severe winter storms affecting multiple US states. Average daily rideshare ride volume in February, excluding the week ending February 21st, increased 5.4% vs. the average daily rideshare ride volume in January 2021. Rideshare ride volume during the week ending February 28th reached a new record level for 2021 and was the Company’s best week since March 2020.
BJ Wholesale - $BJ 3/2/21:
Comparable club sales, excluding gasoline sales, increased by 15.9%, including digitally enabled sales growth of 168%, for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020.
Burlington - $BURL 3/3/21:
Total sales increased 4% to $2,279 million, and comparable store sales were flat. While comparable store sales were down 10% in November due to unfavorable weather, comparable store sales trends improved significantly thereafter, improving to flat in December and to a 17% increase in January, as weather normalized and federal stimulus payments were disbursed.
Technology
LogiTech - $LOGI 3/1/21:
Raised its Fiscal Year 2021 annual outlook to approximately 63 percent sales growth in constant currency, and approximately $1.1 billion in non-GAAP operating income. The Company’s previous outlook was between 57 and 60 percent sales growth in constant currency, and approximately $1.05 billion in non-GAAP operating income.
Announced its Fiscal Year 2022 annual outlook. Sales growth in constant currency is expected to be approximately flat, plus or minus 5 percent, and non-GAAP operating income is expected to be between $750 million and $800 million.
WIX - $WIX 3/2/21:
In the last two years alone, Wix Restaurants' monthly new sign-ups grew from hundreds to tens of thousands. Overall, the number of restaurants selling online grew by 143%, the number of online orders grew by 378% and the GPV grew by 449%. This propelled growth further establishes Wix Restaurants as the leading professional online solution for restaurants.
Sea Limited - $SE 3/2/21 2021 guidance:
Interactive Brokers - $IBKR 3/1/21 Monthly results for February:
Housing
Scotts Miracle-Gro - $SMG 3/1/21:
“Having just finished fiscal February this past Saturday, we now have enough visibility to say that we expect positive sales growth in the U.S. Consumer business on a year-over-year basis. Shipments remain well ahead of last year’s base as retailers prepare for the peak of the lawn and garden season. And consumer purchases of our products at our largest retailers are up 25 percent year-to-date entering March.” -CFO
The expected growth in the U.S. Consumer segment also means the Company anticipates it will exceed its current earnings guidance of $8.00 to $8.40 per share on an adjusted basis.
Lumber Liquidators - $LL 3/2/21:
Comparable store sales for the fourth quarter of 2020 increased 10.5% primarily as a result of continued execution against the Company's transformation plan and healthy consumer demand for home improvement projects. Net merchandise sales increased 11.2% while net services sales (install and freight) increased 10.2% over the prior year.
EXPI World Holdings - $EXPI 3/3/21:
Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 is expected to increase 122% to approximately $609 million, compared to revenue of $274 million in the same year-ago quarter.
Residential transaction volume closed in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased 123% to $24.6 billion, compared to $11.0 billion in the same year-ago quarter.
Residential transaction sides closed in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased 113% to 82,055, compared to 38,611 in the same year-ago quarter.
BlueLinx - $BXC 3/3/21: Domestic new residential construction and residential home renovation markets were robust during the fourth quarter 2020 and remain strong into the first quarter 2021.
Single-family housing starts, a key economic indicator with a high historical correlation to the Company’s business, continue to show strength and increased nearly 30% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and on an annual basis, were at the highest level since 2007.
Annualized single-family housing starts for 2020 are approximately 42% below the peak cyclical levels and remain below the last 50-year average. Total U.S. monthly supply of homes remained constrained, with housing inventory at the end of the fourth quarter at approximately 26% below the 20-year average.
February 2021 Builders’ Confidence Index, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), while down slightly from the all-time highs experienced in November, remains positive, which indicates a likelihood of a strong first half of 2021.
Existing home sales and remodeling expenditures continued to increase on a quarter-over-quarter basis. According to the NAHB, the Remodeling Market Index (RMI) remains strong with the fourth quarter 2020 index equal to 79, an increase of 65% when compared to the first quarter RMI of 48.
Purple - $PRPL 3/3/21:
Net revenue increased 51.4% to $648.5 million as compared to $428.4 million.
Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue increased 83%; Wholesale revenue increased slightly, reflecting COVID-19 related retail partner store closures.
For 2021, the Company currently expects full year revenue to be in the range of $840 to $880 million, an increase of 30% to 36% over 2020 results.
Big Lots - $BIG 3/5/21:
Net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 totaled $1,738 million, an 8.1% increase compared to $1,607 million for the same period last year, with the growth resulting from a 7.9% increase in comparable sales, and sales growth from new and relocated non-comp stores, offset by a slightly lower average store count year-over-year.
Hard home comps were up nearly 20% to last year, with all departments delivering double-digit increases. Key areas such as kitchen appliances, cookware, dinnerware and drinkware delivered over 30% comps, in part due to the cook and dine at home trend.
for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 the company expects to achieve diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.30 to $1.45, based on a low-single-digit comparable sales increase.
Freddie Mac - $FMCC 3/4/21 Mortgage Rates:
Redfin - $RDFN for 4 weeks to 2/28/21:
The median home-sale price increased 16% year over year to $323,600, an all-time high. This is the largest increase on record in this data set, which goes back through 2016.
Asking prices of newly listed homes hit a new all-time high of $347,475, up 10% from the same time a year ago.
Pending home sales were up 18% year over year.
New listings of homes for sale were down 17% from a year earlier.
Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 40% from 2020 to a new all-time low.
Sports Betting
Flutter - $FLTR 3/2/21: Current trading/Outlook:
Strong momentum in 2021 with growth in player volumes across all divisions •
Favourable sports results relative to expectations, particularly in UK and Ireland
Group revenue +36% year on year in the first 7 weeks of the year (to Feb 21) •
Covid restrictions impacting retail business in UK and Ireland with estimated monthly EBITDA loss of £9m for each month that both UK and Irish retail estates remain shut
Inflation Watch
10-Year TIPS/Treasury Breakeven
Costco 3/4/21:
When asked on a broad stroke basis on some of these items, what type of inflation are we seeing, sometimes it's as much as 2% to 4%, sometimes less than that. And on meat, it's trended upward in the mid-singles. Pork in the high singles. That's why bacon -- I mentioned bacon.
And effective March 1, a few days ago, we have implemented a permanent wage increase for hourly employees as well as most salaried warehouse employees. In the U.S. and Canada, we are permanently increasing our starting wage and most wage steps above that by $1 an hour; and increasing our top of scale hourly wage by $0.45 an hour on top of the previously planned $0.55 an hour increase for top of scale. With these changes, our entry-level hourly wages will increase from $15 and $15.50 an hour to $16 and $16.50 an hour. Similar type increases are occurring in other countries where we operate.
Fiesta Restaurant Group: Food costs are projected to remain stable in 2021 compared to 2020 based on current supply commitments we have in place for calendar 2021 across key commodities.
Ruth Chris: But I can tell you from a cost of goods and food perspective, we’re looking at somewhere between 1 to 1.5 on overall inflation.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!
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