Facts from the Week: Oct 9, 2021
Highlights from $COST $MA $BKE $NAPA $NUS $TLRY $SCS.L $LGIH $FMCC $RDFN $OSK Consumer, Housing, Supply Chain
Summary
Costco and Mastercard report continued strong consumer spend in September
Home demand is still strong with Redfin noting median home-sale price increased 12% year over year to $353,869
Consumer
Costco - $COST - September sales
Mastercard - $MA - September Sales
Total retail sales have been growing every month, year-over-year, since September 2020 as consumer spending shows positive signs of recovery heading into the highly anticipated holiday season. According to Mastercard SpendingPulseTM, U.S. retail sales excluding automotive and gasoline increased 5.4% year-over-year in September and increased +11.5% compared to September 2019. E-commerce sales continue to grow even as consumers return to physical stores—+11.5% YOY/ +72.4% YO2Y—reflecting the ongoing demand for the convenience of digital commerce. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment.
Specifically, discretionary spending is seeing strong growth. Restaurants, Department Stores, Apparel, and Jewelry sectors are up as consumers increasingly venture out to refresh their looks for events, occasions and vacations.
The Buckle - $BKE - September Sales
Duckhorn - $NAPA
[note: implies 6% growth for F22]
And really, overall, we see our ability to continually grow our revenue, as you mentioned in the high-single digits to low double digits on an organic basis is really fundamental to our long-term algorithm and creating value. -CEO
NU Skin - $NUS
“Our third quarter revenue was softer than anticipated as the delta variant created unexpected disruptions in many of our markets,” said Ryan Napierski, president and CEO of Nu Skin. “Unanticipated government restrictions impacted our ability to sell and distribute products, with the largest impact in Mainland China and Southeast Asia, and also disrupted promotional activities such as incentive trips and the performance of local expos in several markets.
Tilray - $TLRY
Net revenue increased 43% to $168 million during the first quarter from $117 million in the prior year quarter. The increase was driven by 38% growth in net cannabis revenue to $70 million, net beverage alcohol revenue of $15 million following the SweetWater acquisition on November 25, 2020, and wellness revenue of $15 million from Manitoba Harvest.
Maintained #1 market share in Canada3 with leading portfolio of comprehensive medical cannabis and adult-use brands, including top position in cannabis flower and pre-rolls; five Tilray brands rank in top five brands across all adult-use product categories.
International market leader and #1 in Germany4 with medical cannabis extracts.
Home
ScS Group - $SCS.L
"Trading since the start of the new financial year has remained strong, with two year like-for-like order intake growth of 11.9% for the nine weeks to 2 October 2021. One year like-for-like* orders have fallen 21.0% as a result of the significant bounce following the lockdown in the prior year. We are delighted with the strong orders performance since the start of the new financial year. However, we are cognisant of the ongoing challenges we, and many other businesses, are facing with regards to the supply chain, including driver shortages, raw material increases and shipping costs and delays.
LGI Homes - $LGIH
Closed 793 homes in September 2021, compared to 811 homes closed in September 2020.
In addition, the Company announced record-breaking quarterly closings of 2,499 during the third quarter of 2021 compared to 2,091 closings in the third quarter of 2020, a 19.5% increase year-over-year.
Freddie Mac - $FMCC
Redfin - $RDFN - Data as of 10/6/21:
The median home-sale price increased 12% year over year to $353,869.
Asking prices of newly listed homes were up 12% from the same time a year ago to a median of $365,073, an all-time high. Asking prices rose throughout the month of September, in a typical late-summer seasonal uptick.
Pending home sales were up 3% year over year, the smallest year-over-year increase since June of 2020.
New listings of homes for sale were down 8% from a year earlier. New listings have been below 2020 levels since the four-week period ending August 22.
Supply Chain
Oshkosh - $OSK
While Oshkosh is seeing strong growth in demand, the Company is experiencing significant supply chain and logistics disruptions as well as material and freight cost inflation similar to other companies that are beyond the Company’s prior expectations. The unavailability of parts has impacted the Company’s ability to produce and ship units, particularly at Access Equipment, and has also contributed to labor inefficiencies. As a result, Oshkosh now expects to report both revenues and diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 that are lower than what the Company discussed on its fiscal third quarter conference call.
“We implemented multiple price increases in our non-Defense segments over the past six to nine months to combat unprecedented raw material inflation and freight cost escalation,” said John C. Pfeifer, Oshkosh Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer. “Based on current conditions, we expect that our pricing actions will cover our higher input costs. However, due to our backlogs, we do not believe this price catch-up will occur until the end of the second quarter of Calendar 2022. If cost escalation persists, we will take additional pricing actions.”
Odds and Ends
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet:
PredictIt
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!
@RationalResear
RationalReserach@substack.com