Week in Review: October 9, 2022
Recent highlights from $MA $COST $BKE $LGIH $IBKR $CBRL $SYY $AZO $CSGP $RDFN and more
September:
MasterCard Spending Pulse - September sales vs 2019
Costco - September Sales Results
Buckle September Results
September Mall Traffic - Placer.ai
https://www.placer.ai/blog/placer-ai-mall-indexes-september-2022-recap/
US flight searches compared to 3 years ago - Kayak.com
Gas Prices - GasBuddy.com
IMPLIED GASOLINE DEMAND: Gasoline supplied to the market amounted to 9.47 million barrels per day (MMbpd), or 640,000 bpd higher than the previous week. So far in 2022, implied demand (“products supplied”) is 1.7% lower versus 2021, per the EIA.
Interactive Brokers - Margin Borrowing
September Adjusted NICS FBI Background Check Data
Office Foot Traffic - September - Placer.ai
https://www.placer.ai/blog/placer-ai-office-indexes-september-2022-recap/
LGI Homes - September home closings
Inflation / Deflation
Cracker Barrel
We anticipate commodity inflation of approximately 8% for the fiscal year. We anticipate mid-teens commodity inflation will continue in Q1. And by the end of Q4, we anticipate slight deflation. The largest drivers of commodity inflation are expected to be poultry, produce and dairy with each category representing approximately 13%, 13% and 9% of our market basket, respectively. These 3 categories alone are expected to account for approximately 60% of our overall commodity inflation impact. We expect approximately 5% wage inflation for the fiscal year with Q1 being the highest inflation quarter until we begin to lap the jump in prior year wage rates, which will result in a lower inflation rate for the second through fourth quarters.
Sysco
This isn't USPL, it's the actual entire enterprise for Sysco, high single digits in the first quarter, low single digits in the last quarter, given the lapping of inflation that we've had. What we should take away from that is we're not assuming deflation at a basket level. There will be some categories that are deflationary. But the basket for us, we do expect to be inflationary over the course of the year. And we are going to bob and weave as we have. We're going to continue to pass through our cost of goods, as we have, and continue to seek to be right on price and do the right thing with our customers.
AutoZone
We believe inflation is stabilizing. We are seeing transportation costs begin to moderate after reaching historic levels, but we are not seeing product cost deflation yet nor are we seeing any signs that labor wage growth is slowing.
Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
10/4/22: Apartments.com – a CoStar Group company
released an in-depth report of multifamily rent growth trends for Q3 2022 backed by analyst observations. The report highlights the stark reversal of fortune across the multifamily market, including rent decreases in the largest markets, major slowdowns across the Sunbelt and increased unit deliveries despite wavering demand.
Redfin - housing data week of 10/6/22:
For the week ending October 6, 30-year mortgage rates declined slightly to 6.66%.
The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for home tours and other home-buying services from Redfin agents—declined 10% in the past three weeks to its lowest point since the week ending June 19. The index was down 26% year over year, and fell below the level at the same time in 2020.
Touring activity as of October 2 was down 26% from the start of the year, compared to an 8% increase at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
Mortgage purchase applications during the week ending September 30 were down 13% week over week, seasonally adjusted, to the lowest level since October 2015. Purchase applications were down 37% from a year earlier.
The median home sale price was $367,652, up 7% year over year.
Home sale prices in San Francisco fell 1.4% year over year. Neighboring Oakland, CA, where prices fell 3.4% and New Orleans (-9%) were the only other metro areas that saw year-over-year median-sale-price declines.
The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 9% year over year to $383,000.
Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by dividing the number of active listings by closed sales—increased to 3.0 months, the highest level since July 2020.
Lumber prices
Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac
Indeed.com
Tech Job Postings - September - Comptia
Wage Growth - Atlanta Fed
US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet